New condominium supply down 32.9% in Tokyo area

The Real Estate Economic Institute announced that new apartments offered for sale in the greater Tokyo area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba) have fallen to 3441 units in June, 2011. This is a steep fall of 32.9% from June of 2010.

This is being attributed to the March 11 Tohoku disaster which has led to consumers putting off purchases of large-ticket items and has caused developers to delay sales of new properties. Developers are anticipating a recovery from Fall, 2011, so the supply of apartments in the Tokyo area is expected to increase in a few months time.

The Institute had forecasted a supply of 5500 units, but the actual results were 40% lower than their prediction. The average apartment price was 45.07 million Yen (644,000 USD), which is 4% lower than the year before.

The contract rate was 79.2% which remains above the favorable level of 70% and is the 18th month where the rate has remained above this level.

The Institute is expecting apartment stock levels to increase to 26810 units in the second half of 2011. This would be an increase of 10% from the previous year. However, they have revised their annual estimate of apartment stock downwards and are expecting an annual total of 45,000 units.

The Institute also released data on movements in the apartment market for the first half of 2011:

Period: January – June 2011
Area: Greater Tokyo (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba)

Supply:

The supply of new apartments fell 9.8% to 18,198 units. The first half of 2000 saw the highest supply with 46,816 units.

  • Tokyo 23 wards: down 9.5%
  • West Tokyo (outside of the 23 wards): down 21.8%
  • Kanagawa: up 5.3%
  • Saitama: down 16.5%
  • Chiba: down 27.1%

Average Price:

The average apartment price fell 1.8% to 46,260,000 Yen (585,500 USD), with an average price per sqm of 198,100 Yen (233 USD/sqft).

  • Tokyo 23 wards: 53,470,000 Yen (677,000 USD), down 2.4%
    Average price/sqm: 244,420 Yen (287 USD/sqft), down 1.5%
  • West Tokyo: 41,370,000 Yen (523,700 USD), down 10.3%
    Average price/sqm: 165,470 Yen (195 USD/sqft), down 9.7%
  • Kanagawa: 42,450,000 Yen (537,300 USD), up 2.5%
    Average price/sqm: 177,870 Yen (209 USD/sqft), up 5%
  • Saitama: 37,120,000 Yen (470,000 USD), down 0.3%
    Average price/sqm: 150,950 Yen (178 USD/sqft), down 0.6%
  • Chiba: 36,210,000 Yen (458,300 USD), down 5.8%
    Average price/sqm: 136,730 Yen (160 USD/sqft), down 3.6%

Contract Rate:

The contract rate (the number of sales vs. the supply of units put on the market for the same period) was 79.5%, up 0.6% from 2010.

The total number of sales were 19,152 units, down 13.3% from 2010. A total of 2567 units were sold out on the first day of sales. This represents 14.1% of all units put on the market.

Sources:

“???????????????????????????” The Mainichi Shimbun, July 14, 2011.
“?????????????? ??????????????)” Real Estate Economic Institute, July 14, 2011.

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