Are the Olympics artificially pushing up property prices in Tokyo?

When it was announced that Tokyo would host the 2020 Summer Olympics, owners of high-rise apartments in Tokyo’s bayside area (an area will host the Athletes Village and several sporting events) were naturally excited by the news. Apartment sales offices saw a dramatic increase in demand from buyers who feel certain that the Olympics is going to push up real estate values in the area.

In an article in the Nikkei Business publication, Eugene Oki from Attractors Lab suggests that recent price rises in the bayside islands may lack the substance to continue at current rates, and urges buyers to take a careful look at the factors behind market trends.

The Olympics will bring much needed infrastructure such as sports facilities and a bus lane to the bayside area of Ariake, Harumi and Kachidoki, but the Olympic games alone are not going to be a strong enough reason for the extension of a subway or train line. Retail and other facilities that improve the quality of life will also take some time to create. As such, it is difficult to say whether the current increase in real estate prices can be maintained after the Olympics are over.

Price growth is heavily dependent on trains and subways, not buses

The biggest influence on price growth in a particular area is the development of train or subway lines. In Japan, a bus route or buss rapid transit (BRT) has rarely been shown to improve property values.

There are plans to introduce a BRT that would connect Harumi Island with the Ginza district. While access to Ginza may sound appealing, the majority of residents in the island areas need access to business areas such as Otemachi, Marunouchi, Shinagawa and Shinjuku. Rather than stopping at Ginza, a bus to Yurakucho Station on the JR Yamanote Loop Line would at least provide commuters with an easier switch to the train system.Read more

by Zoe Ward

Tokyo apartment sales in August 2014

Tokyo Apartment Sales in August

The following is selection of apartments that were sold in central Tokyo during the month of August 2014:Read more

by Zoe Ward

Severe shortage in Tokyo apartment supply not necessarily due to high demand

Rising construction costs and project delays are causing the supply of new apartments in the greater Tokyo area to plummet. In 2013, the total number of brand new apartments to hit the market dropped 23.8% from the previous year to 56,478 apartments.

From August 1, MUFJ, SMBC and Mizuho Bank lowered the prime rate on their 10-year fixed rate home loans to a record low 1.3%. While long-term interest rates are showing signs of falling, the recent rise in the consumption tax rate has led a drop in housing starts as well as a drop in sales of new apartments. Banks are now competing to attract borrowers.

While new apartment sales have slowed, they still remain at healthy levels. The contract rate on new apartments in June was 76.6%. Although this was a decline of 5 points from June 2013 and 2.3 points lower than the previous month, it is still above the level of 70% which is considered the threshold for healthy sales.

What is worrying, however, is the drop in supply. According to the Real Estate Economic Institute, 3,503 brand new apartments were offered for sale in the greater Tokyo area in June 2014, down 28.3% from June 2013 and down 18.5% from the previous month. This level is very close to the last low of 3,441 apartments offered for sale in June 2011 (a few months after the 2011 Tohoku disaster). Read more

by Zoe Ward

Secondhand apartment prices in July 2014 - Tokyo Kantei

According to Tokyo Kantei, the average asking price of a 70 sqm (753 sqft) second-hand apartment in Tokyo’s 23 wards was 41,740,000 Yen in July, up 0.3% from the previous month and up 4.7% from last year. The average apartment age was 22.3 years.

In central Tokyo’s six wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo and Shibuya), the average apartment asking price was 58,040,000 Yen, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 8.9% from last year. The average apartment age was 22.2 years.

The average price across greater Tokyo was 28,250,000 Yen, down 0.2% from the previous month but up 2.2% from last year. The average building age was 21.6 years.Read more

by Zoe Ward

Office vacancy rates in July 2014 - Miki Shoji

Mercros Bldg Tamachi Front Bldg
Mercros Building (left) and Tamachi Front Building (right)

According to Miki Shoji’s office report, the office vacancy rate in Tokyo’s five central business districts (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku and Shibuya) was 6.20% in July, down 0.25 points from the previous month and down 2.09 points from last year. This is the lowest level seen since March 2009 when vacancy rates were 6.05%.

The vacancy rate in brand new buildings was 17.41%, down 0.68 points from the previous month but up 4.69 points from last year.

The following office buildings were completed in July:

  • Mercros Building, Nihonbashi, Chuo-ku: 9 floors; 6,980 sqm floorspace.
  • Tamachi Front Building, Shiba, Minato-ku: 9 floors; 5,730 sqm floorspace.
  • PMO Shiba Koen, Minato-ku: 8 floors; 3,500 sqm floorspace.

Read more

by Zoe Ward

New apartment prices in greater Tokyo at 22-year high

Bays Tower Proud Tower Tachikawa Hibarigaoka Feels

According to the Real Estate Economic Institute, 4,222 brand new apartments were released for sale in greater Tokyo in July, up 20.5% from the previous month but down 20.4% from last year. This is the 6th month in a row to see a year-on-year decline in supply. Developers are taking caution to limit supply amidst a drop in demand following the increase in consumption tax and a steep rise in construction costs. According to Nomura Securities, the average cost of construction in May 2014 was 187,000 Yen/sqm - the highest level seen since 1993.

3,532 apartments were sold, making the contract rate 83.6%. This is 7.1 points higher than the previous month and 2.1 points higher than last year.

The average new apartment price was 55,320,000 Yen, up 14.5% from the previous month and up 7.9% from last year. This is the first time that prices have exceeded 55 million Yen since November 1992.

The average price per square meter was 771,000 Yen, up 12.9% from the previous month and up 6.1% from last year.

1,533 apartments in 18 high-rise buildings (over 20-storeys) were offered for sale, up 241% from the previous month but down 1.8% from last year. The contract rate was 93.5%.

Approximately 2,500 new apartments are expected to be released for sale in August. The institute has revised its estimated downwards and now expects between 46,000 ~ 48,000 apartments to be supplied in 2014. Read more

by Zoe Ward

Secondhand apartment transactions down for 4th month in a row

According to REINS, 2,532 second-hand apartments were sold across greater Tokyo in July, down 10% from the previous month and down 14.6% from last year. This is the 4th month in a row to see a decline from one year prior.

The average apartment sale price across greater Tokyo was 26,250,000 Yen, down 4.3% from the previous month but up 2.1% from last year. The average price per square meter was 410,100 Yen, down 3.6% from the previous month but up 4.3% from last year. The average building age was 19.71 years.

1,227 apartments were sold in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, down 11.2% from the previous month and down 12.7% from last year. This is also the 4th month in a row to see a decline from one year prior. The average apartment sale price was 31,990,000 Yen, down 6.3% from the previous month and showing no change from last year. The average price per square meter was 544,700 Yen, down 3.3% from the previous month but up 4.9% from last year. The average building age was 18.59 years.

The average sale price in central Tokyo’s 3 wards (Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato) was 44,950,000 Yen, down 9.4% from the previous month and down 0.9% from last year. The average price per square meter was 912,600 Yen, up 5.0% from the previous month and up 14.8% from last year. The average building age was 16.36 years.Read more

by Zoe Ward