A forecast of new apartment prices between 2020 and 2025

on November 26, the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) issued their most recent medium-term forecast for new apartment prices in Tokyo’s 23 wards. In 2020, the average price is forecast to be 1,071,000 Yen per square meter (approx. US$956/sq.ft). This is a slightly higher revision from their earlier forecast issued last year.

Despite the macro-economic standstill caused by this year’s coronavirus pandemic, there has been no immediate impact on apartment prices in the capital. Supply has shrunk, while demand remains high. In 2021, apartment prices are forecast to increase by 0.3% to 1,074,000 Yen/sqm as the economy recovers. Prices are forecast to increase a further 0.7% in 2022 to 1,081,000 Yen/sqm as the economy bounces back. For the years following, prices are expected to remain flat. 

On the apartment rental side, monthly rents in 2020 are forecast to remain stable at 3,441 Yen/sqm. In 2021 they are forecast to be 3,442 Yen/sqm, dropping 0.3% in 2022 to 3,432 Yen/sqm, and seeing a further drop of 0.1% in 2023 to 3,430 Yen/sqm. In 2025 they are forecast to increase by 0.2% to 3,442 Yen/sqm as the economic recovery finally makes its way to the residential rental market – a sector of the real estate market that often lags behind sale price movements.

Forecasting future property prices is an impossible task for even the largest research institutes and data can be unreliable due to the unpredictable nature of the market and the factors influencing it. Back in 2014, the Institute forecasted that the average price of a new apartment would be 816,000 Yen/sqm in 2020, while the most recent forecast puts it at 1,071,000 Yen/sqm (a 31% difference).

ABOUT THE DATA

The Institute has been providing property market forecasts for Tokyo’s 23 wards since 1998. Reports are based on their own housing market index, GDP, private housing investment and population trends. New apartment prices and rents are based on standard apartments sized between 40 ~ 80 sqm.

These are predictions only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. Japan Property Central, KK does not support or endorse the accuracy or reliability of these forecasts.

Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, November 26, 2020.

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