• 1.3 million residents will be turned away
  • 2.39 million residents will lose their homes
  • 4.48 million residents will be stranded until transportation services resume

Tokyo City is currently unable to provide enough emergency accommodation for the temporary refugees that would not be able to return home in the event of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting Tokyo.

According to estimates, 2.39 million residents will lose their homes and be forced to live in evacuation centers. The shortage in city evacuation centers means that 276,000 of these displaced residents cannot be accommodated. Residents in at least 11 wards including Adachi, Ota, Setagaya, Shinjuku, Shibuya and Meguro, will be affected the most by the shortage.

If transportation is halted by an earthquake, a further 4.48 million residents will not be able to return home until services are restored. In total, the number of people needing to use emergency evacuation centers will exceed actual capacity by 1.3 million.

Each ward in Tokyo has designated schools and other public facilities as evacuation sites, but most wards will not have enough space to accommodate all refugees. Because of this, some agreements have been made with apartment buildings and other large scale commercial facilities to add additional space. The city is also asking private schools and universities to become evacuation sites.

In January, a condominium in Shinagawa-ku was designated as an emergency evacuation site. The building has a 90 sqm common area that can hold up to 100 refugees. The building will also store emergency rations and blankets.

Shinagawa-ku can provide emergency accommodation to 100,000 people. This is just enough to house local displaced residents, but there is no additional space for those who are working or visiting the area when an earthquake occurs and cannot travel home. During the March 11 Tohoku earthquake, a third of those who were stranded were out shopping or running errands.

The city is currently revising its earthquake damage predictions and it seems likely that the estimated number of refugees will be higher than previously expected.

In Minato-ku, the daytime population is 910,000. This is 4.9 times higher than the actual registered residents living in the area. The ward has asked approximately 80 hotels and commercial establishments to consider offering their facilities as evacuation sites. The ward says that current facilities cannot hold a great number of refugees and there could be crowding and chaos in the event of a disaster. For this reason they are appealing to private organizations to help. Private businesses are being urged to store three day’s worth of emergency supplies for staff who may have to stay at their offices until they can return home.

People wait at the Tokyo International Forum in Marunocuhi for train services to resume following the March 11 earthquake.

Sources:
The Yomiuri Shimbun, February 2 and 3, 2012.

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