According to estimates by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the population of central Tokyo’s three wards (Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato) is expected to increase by over 30% by 2045 as more and more people move to the city center. In contrast, the Tama district, which is the very western side of Tokyo and includes Hachioji, Tachikawa, and Mitaka, is expected to see a double-digit percentage drop in resident population. By 2045, Tokyo will be the only district out of Japan’s 47 prefectures to have seen an increase in population.

The population of the central three wards reached 443,000 in 2015. By 2045 it is expected to grow to 595,000 (the Tokyo metropolitan government has estimated it to increase to 630,000 by 2040). The growth is supported by the construction of high-rise apartments that are popular with Japanese buyers and tenants. Chuo ward, which includes some of Tokyo Bay’s manmade islands, is forecast to see a 34.9% increase in population. This is a much faster pace than the Institute’s previous estimate in 2013 of 14.4% growth by 2040. The Athlete’s Village, located on Harumi Island, is expected to contribute 10,000 new residents to Chuo ward.

In 2013, the Institute predicted Chiyoda ward’s population would decline by 2040, but the latest forecast is now for the ward to see a 32.8% increase.

Fussa City in western Tokyo is expected to see population drop by 39.7%. In Tokyo’s 23 wards, Adachi and Edogawa will both see a decrease in population.

The population of metropolitan Tokyo is forecast to reach 13.6 million by 2045, a 90,000 increase from 2015. The number of residents aged over 75 is expected to increase by 54% over the same period.

Nationwide, Japan’s population is forecast to shrink by 16.3% to 106,421,000 by 2045.

Population changes by prefecture (% between 2015 and 2045):

  • Hokkaido: -24.6%
  • Aomori: -37.0%
  • Akita: -41.2%
  • Saitama: -10.2%
  • Chiba: -12.2%
  • Tokyo: +0.7%
  • Kanagawa: -8.9%
  • Nagano: -23.1%
  • Kyoto: -18.1%
  • Osaka: -17.0%
  • Fukuoka: -10.7%
  • Okinawa: -0.4%

The Nikkei Shimbun, March 30, 2018.
The Tokyo Shimbun, March 31, 2018.