According to a forecast by the Real Estate Economic Institute, a total of 38,000 brand new apartments are expected to be released for sale across greater Tokyo in 2018, up 4.4% from 2017 and the second year in a row to see an increase. Depending on demand for buyers eager to purchase before the consumption tax rate increase in October 2019, supply could reach as high as 40,000 units.
Within Tokyo’s 23 wards, however, supply is expected to remain at the same level as 2017 with 17,000 new units. This is below the recent high of 28,340 units released in 2013. Chiba Prefecture is expected to see a 32.4% increase in supply, while Saitama Prefecture may see a 15.4% increase.
The total supply across greater Tokyo in 2017 is forecast to be approximately 36,400 units, up 1.8% from 2016 and the first time in 4 years to see an increase.
The supply of unsold inventory in greater Tokyo as at the end of November 2017 was 6,240 units, down 1.3% from the previous year. The average price of a new apartment between January and November 2017 was 58,840,000 Yen, up 7.2% from 2016 and edging closer to a level last seen in 1991 (59,000,000 Yen).
Across the Kinki region, supply is expected to decrease by 3.7% in 2018 to 18,000 units. The average price of a new apartment between January and November 2017 was 38,260,000 Yen, down 2.4% from 2016 and the first time in 5 years to record a decrease.
In Kyoto City, 700 new apartments are forecast in 2018, down 40.7% from 2017 and about half the annual level seen over the past 7 years. The average price of a new apartment in Kyoto between January and November 2017 was 44,200,000 Yen, the most expensive of all districts in the Kinki region and 24% more expensive than Osaka City.
Source: The Real Estate Economic Institute, December 20, 2017.